`saqarTevlos ekonomika~  2009 (3)
  gazi da navTobi
ramdenad emuqreba ruseTs gazis deficiti da gaizrdeba Tu ara bunebrivi airis fasi saqarTveloSi?
redaqciisagan

didi xania mTel msoflioSi gazi da misi geopolitikuri mniSvneloba mravalmxrivi prognozisa da gansjis sagania. evrokavSiri energetikuli damoukideblobis miRwevas, romelsac misTvis sasicocxlo mniSvneloba aqvs, sxvadasxva meTodebisa da proeqtebis meSveobiT cdilobs. Tumca, am SemTxvevaSi, evrokavSiris dasavleTi da aRmosavleTi evropis yvela wevri qveynis pozicia, gansakuTrebiT ruseTTan dakavSirebiT, erTmaneTs ar emTxveva, rasac gazsaden `nabukos~ garSemo ganviTarebuli movlenebic mowmoben.
   martis miwuruls gamarTul samitze evrokavSirma, Tavmjdomare qveynis, CexeTis mier wardgenili prioritetuli energetikuli proeqtebi daamtkica, romelTa Soris mocemulia `nabukos~ proeqtic. evrokomisiis Tavmjdomarem Joze manuel barozum xazi gausva, 2009_2010 wlebSi, evrokavSiris gamouyenebeli fondebidan, 5 miliardi evros gamoyofas, romelic, ZiriTadad, energetikul proeqtebs daafinansebs. aqedan 4 miliardi enrgetikuli infrastruqturis ganviTarebas, xolo 1 miliardi internetisa da sasoflo zonebis ganviTarebas moxmardeba. energetikuli infrastruqturis ganviTareba evrokavSiris qveynebSi gamavali eleqtrogadamcemi xazebisa da milsadenebis gafarToebas gulisxmobs. `nabukos~ mxardamWerTa monagari samitze 200 milioni evroa. proeqti axali gaTvlebiT 2015 wels unda dasruldes, bunebrivi airis pirvel nakads ki milebSi 2013 wels gauSveben.
   evrokavSirma, `nabukos~ proeqtis dasafinanseblad, sawyis etapze gamosayofi 250 milioni evro 50 mde Seamcira. Tumca, proeqti bolomde ar gawira da CarTo `gazis samxreT derefnis~ ganyofilebaSi, romelic evropis samxreTiT, rigi energetikuli proeqtebis realizacias iTvaliswinebs. es faqti evrokavSiris `nabukos~ mimarTulebiT muSaobis gagrZelebis faqts cxadyofs. rasakvirvelia, 200 milioni evro mcire Tanxaa `nabukos~ realizaciisaTvis, radgan proeqtis srul ganxorcielebas 8 miliardamde sWirdeba; samitis mimdinareoba amasac ar iTvaliswinebda, magram sakiTxi aRmosavleT evropis qveynebis Zalisxmevis Sedegad gadawyda. dasavluri mediis cnobiT, evrokavSirma `nabuko~ prioritetul proeqtebSi mxolod aRmosavleT evropis qveynebis (gansakuTrebiT poloneTis) kategoriuli moTxovnis Semdeg Seitana. postsabWoTa qveynebi daJinebiT moiTxovdnen ruseTis gverdis avliTi proeqtis dafinansebas, rasac win aRudga `CrdiloTis nakadis~ ganxorcielebiT dainteresebuli germania, radgan Tvlis, rom fuli mokle da saSualovadian proeqtebSi unda Caidos da ara grZelvadianSi. `nabukos~ proeqtis gatanas safrangeTi da italiac ewinaaRmdegebodnen, romelTa gaziT mTavari mommaragebeli, iseve rogorc mTavari geopolitikuri moTamaSe, ruseTia; _ magram am ukanasknels, gazis maragTan dakavSirebiT, SesaZloa problemebi TviTon Seeqmnas.
   saerTaSoriso eqspertebis varaudiT, mimdinare finansur krizisamde gazis deficiti ruseTSi 2015 wels, xolo rusi eqspertebis azriT 2010 wels iyo mosalodneli. Tumca, bolo dros ganviTarebulma movlenebma eqspertebi aiZula sakuTari prognozebisaTvis gadaexedaT. maTi gancxadebiT, msoflioSi gazze moTxovna, mimdinare finansuri krizisis gamo, momdevno sami wlis ganmavlobaSi mainc Semcirdeba. meore sakiTxia _ ramdenad miiReben gazs imave raodenobiT, rac am droisTvis ruseTSi moipoveba? SeZlebs Tu ara `gazpromi~ misi saxsrebiT axali sabadoebis _ iamalskisa da Stokmanovskis – amuSavebas? uaxloesi momavlisTvis gazis SesaZlo deficiti ruseTSi gansjis aqtualuri Temaa. rogorc mravali eqsperti aRniSnavs, logikurad yvelaferi airis deficitisaken miemarTeba, radgan Zveli sabadoebi iwureba, xolo axlebis ganviTarebas saTanado YyuradReba ar eqceva.
   rogorc avRniSneT, eqspertebis erTi nawili gazis deficits 2015, xolo meore nawili 2010 wels moelis. maTi mtkicebiT 2010 wels ruseTSi bunebrivi airis deficiti 40 miliard kubur metrs miaRwevs, rac 2007 wels moxmarebuli gazis mTliani moculobis 13%_ia. Tumca zogi Tvlis, rom gazis deficiti ar aris mosalodneli arc 2010 da arc 2015 wlebSi, radgan finansuri krizisis gamo warmoeba da, Sesabamisad, gazze moTxovnac Semcirebulia. garda amisa, `gazproms~ maragis saxiT 7_10 miliardi kubametri gazi aqvs, romelsac saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi aamoqmedebs. am gaTvlebiT deficiti ar aris mosalodneli, magram ramdenad realuria es gaTvlebi?
   Zvel sabadoebSi maragi iwureba, axlebi ki amoqmedebas ramdenad moaswreben ucnobia, miT ufro rom, rusi eqspertebis mtkicebiT, mis ganviTarebas didi yuradReba ar eqceva. 2007 wels `gazpromma~ 650 miliardi kubometri bunebrivi airi awarmoa; 2030 wlisaTvis imave sabadoebidan, mxolod 100_150 miliard kubometr gazs miiRebs, iamolskisa da Stokmanovskis axali sabadoebi, Sesabamisad, 115_140 da 70 miliard kubometr gazs miscems. gamodis rom 2030 wlisaTvis, rogorc Zveli, ise axali sabadoebidan ruseTi weliwadSi mxolod 360 miliardi kubametri gazis mopovebas SeZlebs.
   amasTanave, analitikosebis varaudiT, im droisaTvis, roca iamolskis sabado sruli datvirTviT amuSavdeba, xolo Stokmanovskisa eqspluataciaSi gava, `gazpromi~ axal bazrebs iaponiaSi, CineTsa da amerikaSi gaiCens. 2015_2020 wlebisaTvis, roca gazze moTxovna mTeli msoflios masStabiT iqneba Semcirebuli, am regionebSi moTxovnis zrda mainc saqfiqrebelia, radgan momwodeblebi saWiro raodenobiT veRar uzrunvelyofen; am droisTvis aziisaken daaxloebiT 150_dan 200 miliard kubmetramde moculobis airi gaedineba. 2030 wlisaTvis ruseTis evropisa da aziis yvela bazari weliwadSi, daaxloebiT, 900_1100 miliard kubmetr bunebriv airs moiTxovs. `gazpromsa~ da sxva kompaniebs ki mTlianad, teqnikuri kondiciebis gaTvliswinebiT, mxolod 800_1000 miliardi kuburi metri airis warmoeba SeeZlebaT. asec rom ara, mis eqspluataciaSi Seasvlelad sakmaod didi Tanxebia saWiro. mimdinare finansuri krizisis fonze misi dafinanseba gazpromisTvisac ki rTuli iqneba rusi eqspertebi, ekonomikuri krizisis dasaZlevad, qveyanaSi airis gadasaxadis momatebasac varaudoben, am SemTxvevaSi mosaxleobasa da mewarmeebs aucileblad diferencirebuli tarifebi unda daekisroT. Tumca fasebis ganuxrelma zrdam ruseTi SeiZleba gadauxdelobis iseT krizisamde miiyvanos, rogorsac 90_ian wlebSi ganicdida... saiteresoa kidev ra iqneba `gazpromisaTvis~ prioritetuli _ ekonomikuri mogeba da biznesganviTareba Tu politikuri gaTvlebi? gazi rom ruseTisaTvis araerTxel gamxdara politikuri manipulirebis sagani `ar axalia~.
    sami wlis winandeli zamTari unda axsovdes saqarTvelosac, sadac 2006 wlis 21 ianvars, magistralur gazsadenze momxdari afeTqebis sababiT, ruseTidan gazmomarageba Sewyda. garemoeba, romliTac qveyanas, arc gazmomaragebis uzrunvelmyofeli rezervuarebi, arc moqmedi alternatiuli gazsadeni da arc qvanaxSiris gaTbobis sistemebi gaCnia, cxadyofs, Tu ramdenad iyo damokidebuli saqarTvelo rusul bunebriv airsa da politikur keTilganwyobaze, es faqtori naTelyo imave wlis Semodgomaze, ruseTis mier saqarTvelosTvis airze evropuli tarifis dadgenis survilmac. energodamoukideblobisken gadasadgmeli nabijebidan erT_erTi mniSvnelovani, saqarTveloSi gazsacavis mSeneblobis Sesaxeb miRebuli gadawyvetilebaa. gazsacavis arsebobis mniSvneloba kargad gamoCnda ukraina_ruseTis bunebrivi airis incidentis periodSi, roca ukrainam gazsacavebis meSveobiT SeZlo rusuli agresiis gadatana. rogorc aRvniSneT, saqarTvelos aseTi gazsacavebi ar aqvs, mis mSeneblobaze aqtiuri saubrebi bolo wlebSi daiwyo. cnobilia, aTaswleulis gamowvevis programis energoinfrastruqturis reabilitaciis proeqtis komponentebs gasul wels axali _ gazsacavis mSeneblobis teqnikur_ekonomikuri Seswavlis komponenti daemata. aSendeba Tu ara saqarTveloSi strategiuli gazsacavi, mTavrobam sabolood maisisaTvis unda gadawyvitos. dadebiTi gadawyvetilebis SemTxvevaSi ki mSenebloba 2013 wels unda dasruldes. saproeqto samuSaoebisaTvis `aTaswleulis gamowvevis fondma~ 10 milioni dolari gamoyo da pasuxs moelis mTavrobisagan, romelmac mSenebloba unda daafinansos. eqspertTa SefasebiT, gazsacavis mSenebloba 200 milioni lari dajdeba da, savaraudod, kaxeTSi _ ninowmindis sabadoze an rusTavSi aSendeba.
   rogor xdeba saqarTvelos bunerbrivi airiT momarageba? da ramdenad damoukidebelia rusuli gazisgan?
   saqarTveloSi bunebrivi airis Semotana sami ZiriTadi magistraliT SeiZleba:
   1. Crdilo_samxreTis magistrali, romliTac saqarTveloSi rusuli bunebrivi airi Semodis. misi gamoyenebiT bunebrivi airi somxeTs miewodeba. am tranzitis safasuris saxiT, saqarTvelos navTobisa da gazis korporacias transportirebuli bunebrivi airis 10 procenti rCeba;
   2. samxreT_kavkasiuri magistrali (Sahdenizi) _ proeqtis sawyis etapze dadebuli amJamad moqmedi xelSekrulebis Sesabamisad, saqarTvelos saxelmwifos bunebrivi airis tranzitisTvis misi moculobis 5 procenti ufasod rCeba da damatebiT 300 milioni kubametris yidva, iafad _ 63 aSS dolarad SeuZlia. 2010_2011 wlebSi SeRavaTiani tarifiT Sesasyidi bunebrivi airis kvota 500 milion kubmetramde gaizrdeba;
   3. yaradaRi_saguramos gazsadeni, jer ssrk_s dros, azerbaijanisa da saqarTvelos bunebrivi airis sistemebs akavSirebda. dReisTvis, am gazsadeniT, azerbaijanis saxelmwifo navTobkompaniis, `sokaris~ bunebrivi airi Semodis. azerbaijanuli wyaroebis cnobiT, 2008 wlis aprilidan oqtombramde misi meSveobiT saqarTveloSi 515 milioni kuburi metri bunebrivi airi Semovida. 2008 wlis miwuruls kompanias saxelmwifo sakuTrebaSi arsebuli qselidan 29 gazgamanawilebeli regionuli kompania gadaeca.
   saqarTvelos bunebrivi airis sadistribucio bazris, erT_erTi yvelaze msxvili monawile `yaztransgaz Tbilisia~, mis sakuTrebaSi Tbilisis gazgamanawilebeli qselia. Tumca, sakmaod seriozuli problemebi aqvs. `semekma~, dedaqalaqis uwyveti gazmomaragebis uzrunvelyofis mizniT, specialuri mmarTveli dauniSna. am gadawyvetilebis mizezi didi odenobiT kreditoruli davalianeba gaxda. kompanias 80 milion larze meti davalianeba, maT Soris 68 milioni, saqarTvelos navTobisa da gazis korporaciisa ericxeba. `semekis~ informaciiT, finansuri valdebulebebis srulad dafarvis SemTxvevaSi specialuri mmarTveli saqmianobas dauyovnebliv Sewyvets. amasTanave, `semekSi~, kvalificiuri mmarTvelis wyalobiT, `yaztransgaz Tbilisis~ gakotrebis SesaZleblobas kategoriulad gamoricxaven, safrTxeebze arc `yaztransgaz TbilisSi~ saubroben. `kompanias jerjerobiT gakotrebis safrTxe ar udgas da Sesabamisad, arc Tbilisis mosaxleobis gazmomaragebis procesi Seferxdeba~ – acxadeben `yaztransgaz TbilisSi~. Tumca danamdvilebiT arc is aris cnobili, SesZlebs Tu ara kompania soliduri davalianebis dafarvas.
   misi generaluri direqtori sanjar makataevi qarTul menejmentTan TanamSromlobas eTanxmeba. `es gadawyvetileba ar aris dakavSirebuli politikasTan, qonebis CamorTmevaze saubari ar aris. Cven axal menejmentTan viTanamSromlebT” – aRniSna makataevma.
   Tumca, qarTveli eqspertebi xmamaRla alaparakdnen imaze, rom `yaztransgaz_Tbilisi~ finansuri problemebis mogvarebas mosaxleobisTvis tarifis gazrdiT Seecdeba. amaSi eqspertebi energetikis maregulirebel komisiasac adanaSauleben. isini fiqroben rom, rac `yaztransgazTan~ dakavSirebiT xdeba, maregulirebeli komisiis ususuri muSaobis Sedegia da ganmartaven, rom davalianeba saxelmwifo biujetma an TviT kompaniam unda dafaros, arada Tbilisis mosaxleoba gazis Sewyvetis winaaRmdeg aRdgeba. `yaztransgazs~ keTilsasurveli urTierToba Tbilisis mosaxleobasTan isedac ar aqvs _ bolo TveebSi kompania abonentebs vadagasuli da dazianebuli mricxvelebis sakuTari saxsrebiT gamocvlas aiZulebs. gaxSirda ukanono CaWrebis faqtebic. mosaxleobis ineteresebis damcvelad, am SemTxvevaSic, xma aravis aRumaRlebia _ acxadeben isini.
   
   arada, roca saqarTvelos mTavrobam 2005 wlis gazafxulze `Tbilgazis~ gayidva gadawyvita, `gazpromis~ 7,4 milioni aSS dolari, dedaqalaqis biujetis ki 120 mln. lari marTebda. `gazpromTan~ CaSlili molaparakebebis Semdeg xelisuflebam iseTi investoris Zebna daiwyo, romelic iaf gazs Semoitanda, an `gazpromTan~ saWiro raodenobis airis mowodebis Sesaxeb sasurvel fasad SeZlebda xelSekrulebis dadebas. aseTi kompania `yaztransgazi~ aRmoCnda, romelsac mTavrobam Tbilisis distribucia miyida. `yaztransgazi~ yazaxeTis saxelmwifo navTobisa da gazis kompaniis `yazmungaizis~ Svilobili kompaniaa da yazaxeTSi gazis transportirebas axorcielebs. maSin saqarTvelos xelisuflebaSi imedi hqondaT, rom `yazmungaizi~ `gazproms~ TbilisisaTvis gankuTvnili airis sakuTar milsadenSi daSvebaze daiTanxmebda da Sesabamisad, `yaztransgazi~ saqarTvelos iafi yazaxuri gaziT moamaragebda. Eeqspertebi Tavidanve aRniSnavdnen, rom es molodini gadaWarbebuli iyo. `gazpromi~ Tavis milsadenebSi mesame mxares ar dauSvebda, `yazmungaizi~ ki `gazpromTan~ urTierTobas, Tbilisis iafi gaziT uzrunvelyofisaTvis, ar gaifuWebda _ amis gamo yazaxurma kompaniam iafi gazis Semotana ver SeZlo da Tbilisis mosaxleobisaTvis saWiro raodenobiT aris, navTobisa da gazis korporaciisgan yidulobs.
   qarTul bazarze Semosulia rusuli `iterac~, romlis sakuTrebaSi 9 regionuli gazgamanawilebeli qseli, igi aseve bunebrivi airis msxvil momxmareblebsac emsaxureba.
   cementis qarxnebi, puris qarxnebi, gazgamanawilebeli sadgurebi da sxva msxvili da saSualo masStabis momxmarebeli hyavs saqarTvelos saerTaSoriso energetikul korporacias, romelic kerZo struqturaa da bazarze Cveulebrivi komerciuli wesebiT TamaSobs.
   mniSvnelovania, rom sadistribucio kompaniebis didi nawili dReisTvis bunebriv airs saqarTvelos navTobisa da gazis korporaciisgan yidulobs. e.w. `socialuri bunebrivi airis~ fasi dReisTvis 167 aSS dolaria. igi rusuli tranzitis 10 procents, Sahdenizis ufaso da iafi bunebriv airsa da, nawiloebriv, `sokarisagan~ xuTwliani xelSekrulebis safuZvelze nayid bunebriv airs moicavs. rogorc navTobisa da gazis korporaciaSi acxadeben 2008 wlisTvis am gazis odenobam, daaxloebiT, erTi miliard 50 milioni kuburi metri Seadgina. jamSi saqarTvelom gasul wels, daaxloebiT, 1,5 miliardi kuburi metri bunebrivi airi moixmara, rac 2007 wlis maCvenebelze, daaxloebiT, 200 milioni kuburi metriT naklebia.
   sainteresoa, saqarTvelos sadistribucio kompaniebi romel bunebriv airs moixmaren? kompania `itera saqarTvelo~ acxadebs, rom komerciul gazs nawilobriv `sokarisgan”, nawilobriv ki Tavad `iterasgan~ yidulobs da transportirebasac, Sesabamisad, ruseTidan axdens, amasTanave, gaformebuli aqvs xuTwliani kontraqtebi, Tumca fasebis gadaxedva yovelwliurad xdeba da, uaxloes periodSi bunebriv airSi, ra Tanxis gadaxda mouwevs, jerjerobiT, dazustebiT ver ityvis.
   saqarTvelos saerTaSoriso energetikuli korporacia dReisTvis bunebriv airs kompania `sokarisgan~ yidulobs. gasul wels korporacia aseve yidulobda `gazpromis~ gazsac, Tumca imis gamo, rom `sokaris~ airi dReisTvis `gazpromisaze~ 5 dolariT iafia (Sesabamisad _ 275 aSS dolari da 280 aSS dolari), amjerad arCevani `sokarze~ SeaCera.
   aRmoCnda, rom saqarTvelo sakmaod Tavisufalia rusuli gazpromisagan, Tumca, sakmaod aris damokidebuli azerbaijanul saxelmwifo kompaniaze, rac saqarTvelos saerTaSoriso proeqtebSi CarTulobam unda daabalansos. energodamoukidebulebis maRalxarisxianobisTvis Zalian mniSvnelovania qveynis energoderefnis SesaZlo gafarToebis perspeqtiva, razec saqarTvelo_aSS_s Soris strategiuli TanamSromlobis Sesaxeb dokumentSic aris saubari.
   am etapze qveynis gazmomaragebis diversificireba ase Tu ise moxerxda; bazarze konkurenciis gaCenasac daedo safuZveli. Tumca, imis nacvlad rom tarifebma iklos, realuri xdeba misi gazrdis safrTxe.
   Cndeba logikuri kiTxva _ ramdenad qmediTunariania `semeki~ da ra aris misi mTavari funqcia _ top_menejerebis cvla Tu mosaxleobis interesebis dacva?


gamomcemeli: Tavisufali ekonomikis instituti da: saqarTvelos savaWro_samrewvelo palata